in a future world of quantum computers we will certainly have new encryption techniques, but the security of these techniques will be broadly comparable to those of today. The main reason of this is because the sources of weaknesses associated with encryption are likely to be just the same as they are today. Here’s why.
Encryption is essentially a locking mechanism. A lock needs a key. If you put the best lock money can buy on the door of a house then you can be confident that the lock itself will not be broken. Quantum computing represents a new type of house, quantum-safe encryption a new type of lock that is fit for that house.
But if someone wants to break into that house, and they know the lock is good, then they won’t try to bust the lock at all. Instead, they will look for other options. For example, they could try to steal the key or they could chuck a brick through the window. Broadly speaking, this is exactly what happens in most cyber security incidents today. Modern encryption is excellent, but we are less competent at protecting decryption keys and even worse at properly integrating encryption into wider systems. And don’t see this changing in a world of quantum computers, no matter how wonderful, whenever that will be.
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